Writing Off British Agriculture

Brexit's grim legacy emerges.

Here’s Peter Zeihan on what the long term fate of agriculture in the U.K. will be. Exec summary - farmers are screwed, any plausible trade deal the U.K. can get puts them at the mercy of either the U.S. or the European Union. Both will require further damage to U.K. farming as a component of any trade deal.

The United States is about to do something really stupid with undocumented immigrants that is going to absolutely ravage our agriculture sector as well. When 50% of farm workers fear deportation they’re going to flee the states that will cooperate with the Trump administration for the relative safety of the west coast states. California should be fine, less climate hazard exposure, but the rest of the country? Look out.

And if our self inflicted damage leaves no exportable surplus, the U.K. goes hat in hand back to the E.U. and begs for scraps. It’s not clear if that’s going to be the case - the U.S. ag, construction, and hospitality sectors are in an absolute uproar over the impending loss of half their work force. Some of this is inevitable, and it’s going to give labor a huge boost, which I’m sure will delight the Republicans.

I don’t want to live through this, nor do I want to see anyone else. But we’ve Fucked Around for a good long while, and now it’s time to Find Out.