Losing Boeing

Software is a supply chain, too.

This Frontline documentary on the Boeing 737 MAX is damning … but there’s more.

This story is primarily about the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System, a high speed stability feature created to keep the KC-46 Pegasus tanker steady at transonic speeds when it’s got a another plane 48’ away and it’s offloading a ton of fuel every thirty seconds.

Boeing transferred the MCAS feature from the KC-46 to the 737 MAX specifically so pilots would not need simulator time to qualify for the new type. They did this due to competitive pressure from Airbus. This feature was found to be active down to 0.2 mach, which is just slightly below stall speed, and it can be activated by just one of the two angle of attack indicators. Watch the documentary for the particulars.

More:

There are some dynamics with Boeing that I’ve noticed that weren’t covered in the documentary.

Part of the reason MCAS acts the way it does is that Boeing let the count of experienced avionics developers dwindle and offshored some of this work to India. This is part stupid cost cutting behavior that’s going to not just kill passengers, it’s liable to kill the company at this rate, but it’s also a demographics problem. India is competitive in this area because there are more kids going into the IT field.

Boeing’s production used to be centered on Seattle. They’ve been shifting to South Carolina, specifically to avoid the cost of union employees. And apparently not caring about the value of union employees. Demographics will correct this - there are simply fewer of us, many fewer Gen-X and only some more younger, less experienced Millennials. The Boomers are all but done and that is an enormous change for this country. Keep in mind the Baby Boom was global, the Millennial echo boom was NOT. Labor is back, and it makes my brain hurt to consider it, but part of the unions coming unzipped from the Democrats is because of this. Trump’s populism resonated, even as the demographic changes begin to reinvigorate unions.

Finally there’s the sum of all supply chain issues. A lot of aircraft intellectual property is software, but software runs on little bits of silicon, see Global Chip Manufacturing Details for concerns in that area. And once that’s done you still need titanium and rare earth magnets and carbon fiber and German engineering in your machine tools. The world’s first plane was cobbled together in a bicycle shop. Depending on just how ugly things get out there we might be on the verge of rediscovering carburetors and magnetos, that pre-Korean war aviation world where any auto mechanic could pretty quickly get up to speed on any plane in the air.

Conclusion:

What happens if we lose Boeing? I don’t think we CAN lose the company, there aren’t any other large airliner builders left. But we could very well end up with a politicized zombie with its nose in a Capitol Hill feeding trough for a generation and Kayak will keep the “If it’s Boeing I ain’t going!” search option.

A final thought: every company is playing these games. Boeing got caught out, 346 dead. Phillips got caught out on breathing related systems. 500 dead. Things that should be absolutely bullet proof are being left to run on until their faults become unbearable.

Later this year I’m going to start getting on planes again after a nine year gap in air travel. I can’t say that I’m really keen about the prospect.