JAUKUS?

Will Japan join the alliance created in 2021? Who else will?

UPDATED: shortly after I posted this CNA had a short piece on Prime Minister Kishida’s U.S. visit and the focus on defense. It’s included at the end.

NATO just celebrated its 75th anniversary, but SEATO, which dissolved just ahead of China’s opening to the west at the end of the 1970s, is all but forgotten. AUKUS formed in 2021, among many other reasons, to facilitate Australia acquiring nuclear powered submarines.

For the folks who don’t follow military acquisition news, Australia has a half dozen elderly Collins class diesel electric boats, and after torturous attempts to design local, then build local, they’ve settled on American Virginia class attack boats. There was an episode where they were going to get a dozen German 209 class boats with AIP (air independent propulsion).

Australia would have had a tolerable fleet with the 209s but the Virginia class will be very freeing for them. If the U.S. is the policeman of the world, Australia is certainly the neighborhood watch for southeast Asia. They consistently punch above their weight thanks to their FVEYS membership and due to their lack of history with the Asian powers. There’s a saying “history is short, but memories are long”. China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all have long, conflicted history with each other. Australia can quietly ask to have a word and smooth things over.

Less well known in America is that Singapore, a former British colony in a position to guard the strait of Malacca, is as trusted as FVEYS members or Japan. Note that this is a Singapore news outlet.

And this is an Indian outlet, saying the quiet part (AUKUSJCNZSK) out loud.

What role does India play in all this? As the U.S. withdraws from its globalization duties the other countries benefiting from the current freedom of the seas regime are paying attention to what they will need to do.

Singapore’s navy aspires to be “more than a coastguard” but they’ve made a terrible misstep by acquiring the Little Crappy Ship - the U.S. Independence class LCS. Luckily, they do have half dozen each of frigates and corvettes, as well as numerous other smaller ships. I was seeking further information on this and was amazed to find a straight up mention of demographics in this short piece about the MRCV type ships.

Size Matters:

If you believe Peter Zeihan, and I think he is fairly right about all sorts of things, the U.S. is losing interest in policing global sea lanes. The arc of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and on around to the Indian ocean would prefer that shipping continue as it does now, but they are mindful of what is described as “China’s assertiveness”.

As an internally investment driven economy displaying little interest in fueling internal consumption, exports are the only path for China to fit into the world at large. They import 80% of the inputs for their agriculture and the vast majority of their trade goes out by container ship. There is a natural regional drag on any belligerence on their part, so long as the collective navies of the region are able to cause problems China can not resolve on its own.

While China’s hull count is large, their fleet is akin to Singapore’s in terms of ship types - only about fifty ships are capable of long duration “blue water” deploys. The U.S. has about eighty front line surface combatants, destroyers and cruisers, as well as a dozen each of aircraft carriers and helicopter carriers. Japan maintains four ships similar to U.S. helicopter carriers and about half as many surface combatants. South Korea has a dozen surface combatants that would be frigates in the U.S. navy based on their displacement, as well as sixteen ships they call frigates, which are the size of our Littoral Combat Ships.

Taiwan’s fleet is a special case, it’s a sort of working naval museum. Four Kidd class destroyers, many Knox and Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, with their newest ships being 1990s vintage design from France, the La Fayette class. They can’t stop China, but all they have to do is remain standing until Japan and the U.S. respond.

Conclusion:

This article is factually correct and it flows fairly well, but it is incomplete in terms of those facts, and that makes conclusions difficult. We’re being sold a “cold war with China” but I think what’s coming may be more like the collapse of the Soviet Union. There will be less need to confront and more need to comfort those in the vicinity who may get caught up in the overall drama.

I’m unhappy with the state of the world. I’ve been aware of the hazards, which threaten our entire species, since 2007. Despite the energy I’ve thrown at these troubles, I’ve made no progress. And since encountering Zeihan I don’t think even having another six or seven zeros on my net worth would have made much of a difference. We are on a course and I don’t think we have the time or resources to change it much, even if we could muster the political will.

I most humbly apologize for mumbling like this, it’s one of those things I’ve written as a sort of mental checkpoint for myself, so I can move on to whatever is next.