Cuban Grid Collapse

Prepare for more climate refugees.

Cuba has been under U.S. embargo since it turned communist in 1959. The U.S. has experienced waves of refugees over the years, both those legitimately fleeing, and some criminals intentionally released by the Castro government. The most famous incident, the Mariel boatlift, brought 125,000 to U.S. shores in short order.

Now Cuba’s electrical grid has collapsed four times this weekend. The U.S. embargo is part of the reason but loss of fuel support from Venezuela, a former patron, is a bigger issue. China - Cuba relations are good, but if you’re following China Update, you know that China has their own version of our 2008 financial crisis brewing. A rescue in the form of rebuilding generating capacity seems possible, but the ongoing fuel supply is just as big an issue and there are no friendly exporters near.

Hurricane Oscar will hit the eastern third of Cuba head on, then make a sharp right turn over the smaller islands of the Bahamas. I know so little of Cuba I can’t begin to estimate what a hit like this means. Puerto Rico has still not recovered from 2017 and that’s U.S. territory, but Oscar is not as fearsome as Maria was.

Constraining Cuba such that it isn’t a thorn in our side has its roots in the Cuban Missile Crisis sixty two years ago. We will continue our Cold War policy relic of embargo, because China and Russia could use the island as a springboard to make trouble. But there will come a day when Mother Nature makes conditions there impossible, then we’ll have a problem largely of our own making.